A view on the world.
Updated. Operational.
The Ellara Risk intelligence function monitors developing situations across high-risk operating environments — tracking conflict escalation, political instability, natural disaster, and security incidents relevant to our clients’ operational footprints.
Our quarterly Risk Briefing is available to retained clients and by subscription — covering the regions and threat categories that matter to organisations operating beyond low-risk environments.
A view on the world. Updated. Operational.
The Ellara Risk intelligence function monitors developing situations across high-risk operating environments — tracking conflict escalation, political instability, natural disaster, and security incidents relevant to our clients’ operational footprints.
Our Remote Threat Assessments (RTA) and bespoke reports are available to both retained and non-retained clients — covering the regions, project areas and threat categories that matter to organisations operating beyond low-risk environments.
Data Assessment Baseline: Geopolitical Risk Assessment Frameworks (GRAF) | Status Update: July 2026
North, Central, & South America
Venezuela
Type of Crisis: Natural Disaster and Acute Humanitarian Emergency
Devastating twin earthquakes have flattened coastal towns and parts of the capital, triggering a massive economic collapse and a critical shortage of medical care and clean water [unicefusa.org].
Haiti
Type of Crisis: Civil/Political Unrest, Gang Warfare, and State Collapse
Near-total lawlessness following a complete gang takeover of the capital, bringing extreme risks of kidnapping and extortion to everyday life.
Ecuador
Type of Crisis: Security Crisis and Cartel Warfare
Violent turf wars between powerful international drug syndicates have transformed public spaces into battlegrounds against state security forces.
Bolivia
Type of Crisis: Civil/Political Unrest and Economic Crisis
Severe fuel shortages and land reform disputes have triggered crippling nationwide road blockades and paralysing anti-government strikes.
Colombia
Type of Crisis: Security Crisis, Civil Unrest, and Climate Impact
Splintered rebel factions continue to drive internal displacement, while severe climate patterns heavily disrupt urban food and water systems.
Mexico
Type of Crisis: Security Crisis and Cartel Warfare
Powerful drug cartels utilising military-grade weaponry are waging highly violent turf wars against state forces, resulting in extreme rates of homicides, forced disappearances, and localised internal displacement.
El Salvador
Type of Crisis: Political Unrest and Civil Rights Crisis
While a massive government crackdown has drastically reduced gang violence, it has triggered a severe civil crisis characterised by prolonged states of emergency, mass arbitrary detentions, and the total erosion of judicial due process.
Brazil
Type of Crisis: Security Crisis and Gang Violence
Intense turf wars between powerful prison syndicates and state forces over urban trafficking ports have made it one of the most violent nations globally due to targeted urban friction.
Europe & the Middle East
Ukraine
Type of Crisis: High-Intensity Interstate War
A massive, full-scale invasion involving heavy ground combat and relentless missile attacks that constantly target civilian infrastructure and national power grids.
Occupied Palestinian Territories & Lebanon
Type of Crisis: War, Security Crisis, and Humanitarian Catastrophe
High-intensity military campaigns have destroyed urban infrastructure, leaving millions trapped in continuous displacement with severe shortages of water, medicine, and safety.
Syria
Type of Crisis: Civil War, Terrorism, and Health Crisis
Deep instability following the collapse of the previous regime, leaving civilians caught between lingering terrorist insurgencies and a fractured healthcare system.
Yemen
Type of Crisis: War, Terrorism, and Blockade
Ongoing civil conflict combined with aggressive Houthi naval blockades and retaliatory air strikes in the Red Sea have choked off international maritime trade, triggering severe national food weaponisation and widespread famine.
Iran
Type of Crisis: Security Crisis, Regional Warfare, and Civil Strain
A sharp escalation in high-intensity military conflicts and direct cross-border rocket strikes with neighbouring regional powers has forced mass internal evacuations, heavily overwhelmed trauma hospitals, and severely damaged local supply chains.
Armenia & Azerbaijan
Type of Crisis: Territorial Conflict and Security Crisis
Despite past peace talks, the border region remains highly volatile with frequent military skirmishes and localised shelling, leaving tens of thousands of displaced persons in a precarious humanitarian state.
Africa
Sudan
Type of Crisis: War, Famine, and Humanitarian Emergency
An intense internal conflict between rival military factions has shattered the state, collapsed food networks, and left tens of millions facing severe starvation.
Burkina Faso & Mali
Type of Crisis: Terrorism and Security Crisis
Broad areas are controlled by al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates, who blockade major towns and cut off vital supply lines for food and medicine.
Somalia
Type of Crisis: Terrorism, Security, and Severe Health Emergency
Widespread territorial insurgencies by Al-Shabaab and ISIS have crippled the government’s ability to combat deadly concurrent cholera and measles outbreaks.
Niger & Chad
Type of Crisis: Political Unrest, Military Coups, and Terrorism
A wave of military coups has left a massive security vacuum, allowing regional extremist groups to rapidly expand and raid local villages.
Nigeria
Type of Crisis: Security Crisis, Terrorism, and Civil Unrest
Security forces are stretched thin across simultaneous jihadist insurgencies, violent northwest bandit groups, and mass highway kidnappings.
Central African Republic & Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
Type of Crisis: Medical Pandemic (Mpox), War, and Humanitarian Crisis
Overcrowded, unhygienic displacement camps fleeing active warfare have created a perfect environment for a highly contagious, mutated Mpox strain to spread rapidly.
Asia-Pacific
Myanmar
Type of Crisis: Security Crisis and Gang Violence
Intense turf wars between powerful prison syndicates and state forces over urban trafficking ports have made it one of the most violent nations globally due to targeted urban friction.
Pakistan
Type of Crisis: Political Unrest, Security, and Economic Spillover
Spiking regional border clashes with Afghanistan, combined with a severe economic shock from rising maritime oil and transit insurance costs, have triggered violent civil protests and widespread domestic instability.
Papua New Guinea
Type of Crisis: Security Crisis and Civil Unrest
Severe tribal violence in the Highlands combined with urban rioting over economic hardship has overwhelmed local police, leading to mass casualties, burnt infrastructure, and declared states of emergency.
North Korea
Type of Crisis: Humanitarian and Geopolitical Security Crisis
Extreme international isolation and strict border closures have worsened a silent, chronic food security crisis, while aggressive ballistic missile testing continually escalates military tensions across the Pacific.
Bangladesh (The Rohingya Camps)
Cox’s Bazar houses nearly one million Rohingya refugees facing severe international aid underfunding, massive fires, and escalating violence from armed militant groups operating inside the camps.
Transnational & Global Bottlenecks
The Red Sea & Gulf of Aden Maritime Corridor
Type of Crisis: Geopolitical Security and Supply Chain Crisis
Continuous maritime drone and missile attacks on commercial ships have forced global trade to bypass the Suez Canal, driving up transit insurance and shipping costs worldwide.